Report Summary

Period covered: 02 March – 05 April 2025

3 minute read

Note: This report summary is one or two months behind the current month as standard reporting practice. The content is indicative only and incomplete with certain data undisclosed. Become a member to access this data or take out a free 30-day membership trial now.

Retail Sales Performance:

Retail sales rose by xx% year-on-year in March, according to the Retail Economics Retail Sales Index.

Factors impacting sales include better weather with sunny spells, longer evenings and the shift into spring, consumer uncertainty and impending increases in essential bills, and the introduction of US tariffs at the end of the trading period.

Polarised backdrop

Retailers saw signs of optimism in March as better weather and longer evenings encouraged shoppers out of the house to spend in non-essential categories.

However, while shoots of optimism were welcome, continued geopolitical uncertainty, imminent increases in bills, and expected inflation meant the small rise in consumer confidence was a fragile one.

March spending

Mother’s Day boosted gifting categories, with Health & Beauty up xx%.

Clothing (+xx%) and Footwear (+xx%) performed well, with retailers reporting that improved weather impacted sales. Prices in the sector rose xx% YoY as retailers shifted to full price sales.

Food sales rose xx% YoY, down from xx% in February as households cut spending ahead of Easter, Mother’s Day and bills increases in April. Dining out spend fell xx% (Barclays).

Promotional spending surged, reaching its highest level for four years in March. It accounted for xx% of total sales (Kantar), with £xx worth of spend driven by price cuts.

Notably, grocery price inflation remains a key concern for consumers ranking third after energy bills and economic outlook, according to Kantar. Over a xx (xx%) of households say they are financially struggling.

Electricals (+xx%) continued to enjoy a recovery as consumers continue to refresh five-year-old devices bought during the pandemic.

Shopper Sentiment

Retail Economics’ Shopper Sentiment survey, conducted on April 17, suggests shoppers are showing signs of resilience and improvement in sentiment compared to the beginning of the year.

Expectations for the economy and personal finances are both more balanced than at the beginning of the year.

Just under xx (xx%) of consumers expect the economy to weaken over the next three months, while almost a xx (xx%) expect it to strengthen, up from xx% in January.

A xx (xx%) of consumers expect their personal finances to weaken in the next three months, up marginally from January, while xx% expect them to strengthen, improving on the previous quarter.

Consumers’ view of their personal financial situation has improved, with just under a xx (xx%) saying they have no concerns, up from xx % in January.

However, debt and inflation are causing worries. xx% of consumers have concerns about their level of credit card debt and rising inflation, both up from xx% in January.

Despite this, shoppers are not planning to cut back on spending in huge numbers.

Just under a xx (xx%) indicated they would be spending less in the next three months, up only slightly from xx% in January.

This resilience suggests consumers are adapting, focusing on day-to-day stability rather than retreating into full caution.

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Consumer confidence fell in April in response to Trump’s tariffs