The second estimate of GDP for Q1 2017 showed a 0.2 per cent rise compared with the previous quarter, a 0.1 percentage point downward revision from the first estimate and below City and Bank of England expectations. The second estimate is compiled with approximately 80 per cent of the data available and therefore could be subject to further revisions next month. Consumers personal finances are under increasing pressure with rising inflation and slowing earnings growth pushing real earnings into negative territory (-0.2 per cent) for the first time since September 2014. Inflation rose 2.7 per cent in April, year-on-year, up sharply from the 2.3 per cent rise in the previous month. This was in line with the Bank of England’s expectations but above the consensus view of 2.6 per cent. Pressure on household budgets is likely to continue as we anticipate inflation to outstrip earnings growth for the remainder of the year. Indeed, 43 per cent of consumers said that they had become more cautious with their spending in the last three months according to the Retail Economics Shopper Sentiment Survey, conducted on 11 April.
UK Retail Economic Briefing
Our UK Retail Economic Briefing analyses a range of macroeconomic indicators including GDP, consumer spending, inflation, labour market, commodity prices, exchange rates, monetary indicators, credit and lending market data, house prices, mortgage data, retail sales and more.
UK Retail Economic Briefing - May 2017
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The UK Retail Economic Briefing includes:
|Summary and economic overview|
|Prices, costs and margins|
|... and much more|