Halifax House Price Index June 2023

Annual rate of growth falls to -2.6%

Source: Halifax, IHS Markit

Key trends

The average UK house price fell 0.1% on a monthly basis in June, down by approximately £300 compared to May, marking the third consecutive monthly decline.
The annual rate of house price growth was -2.6% in June, the largest year-on-year decline since June 2011. This reflects the impact of exceptionally high house prices last summer, which were bolstered by the temporary Stamp Duty cut.
However, prices remain up £4,000 (+1.5%) so far this year, with the majority of growth occurring in Q1 following sharp declines at the end of 2022.
Prices fell on an annual basis across most regions of the UK, with the West Midlands (+1.5%), Yorkshire & Humberside (+0.2%), and Northern Ireland (+0.2%) being the only exceptions.
House prices face the most downward pressure in the South of England, with the London and the South East recording annual declines of 2.6% and 3.0% respectively.

Outlook

The latest house price growth figures suggest market conditions are beginning to stabilise against a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, with volumes of mortgage applications holding up well throughout June, according to Halifax.
However, persistent rises in interest rates are likely to have a negative impact on buyer demand in the coming months, particularly mortgagers on variable deals or those coming to the end of their fixed rate terms.
Looking ahead to the rest of the year, consumer price inflation is likely to ease as energy and food prices fall, potentially boosting buyer confidence. However, with market forecasts for the Bank Rate as high as 6%, this could be offset by the negative impact of further rises.