Halifax House Price Index October 2022

UK house prices increased 8.3% YoY in October according to mortgage lender Halifax.
On a monthly basis, prices fell by 0.4% in October (vs -0.1% in September).
The average UK property now costs £292,598 (down from £293,664 in September

House price growth eases

Source: Halifax, IHS Markit

Key trends

The annual rate of house price growth eased to 8.3%, from 9.9% in September, indicating that the housing market has entered a slower period.
The monthly fall in house prices of -0.4% is the sharpest since February 2021, taking the average property price to a five-month low of £292,598.
All English regions with the exception of the North East experienced weaker annual price inflation in October compared to September. The West Midlands and Wales now have the joint highest growth of any UK region at 11.7% (down from 13.2% and 14.4% respectively in the previous month).
London continues to lag other UK regions, and the rate of annual house price inflation in the capital rose again by 6.8% in October, down from 8.1% in September. With a typical house price of £551,320, however, the average property price is London continues to be significantly higher than those in other parts of the country.

Outlook

The mini budget put significant downward pressure on house prices during the month as mortgage rates spiked. While these fiscal measures have now been reversed, buyer confidence remains low due to surging living costs and rising interest rates.
The likely announcement of tax rises and spending cuts as part of the Autumn Budget points to a further slowdown of the housing market.
Looking further ahead, upward pressures on house prices, such as low inventory, remain. However, the growing prospect of the UK entering a recession makes the outlook for house prices bleak.
While current joblessness is at a historic low, an increase in unemployment in the event of a recession will also be a key determinant of house price performance over 2023.