ONS Retail Sales November 2022

Retail sales (value, non-seasonally adjusted, exc. fuel) continued to lag inflation, rising by a subdued 3.1% year-on-year (YoY) in November according to the latest ONS data.
In volume terms, retail sales declined by 6.1% YoY in November, against a 0.6% uplift a year ago (non-seasonally adjusted, exc. fuel), marking the weakest November rate on record (since 1989).
This marked the ninth volume decline on an annual basis, with the three-month-on-three-month volume rate seeing a decline of -2.3% in the quarter to November (volume, seasonally adjusted).

Retail sales value and volume growth has detached

Source: ONS, Retail Economics analysis

Note: all retail sales figures provided below are non-seasonally adjusted, excluding Fuel, unless stated otherwise.

Food and non-food

Food sales values stepped up by 6.9% YoY (versus -0.5% last year), marking the strongest rate since the first Covid-19 lockdown in 2020. However, after accounting for double-digit inflation, food volumes declined by 5.5% YoY in the month.
This nonetheless marked a 4.8% uplift in Food volumes compared to October, as shoppers looked to stock up early and spread the cost of Christmas, as well as celebrate the World Cup.
Strong comparisons to last year saw clothing sales remain weak. Sales in the category rose by 4.0% YoY in November, against a 53.2% rise a year earlier. Volumes continued to edge down, falling by 4.4% in the month.
Furniture and Lighting sales saw volumes edge up 2.7% YoY in November, following a 6.6% decline in the previous month, with values up 14.3%. Longer Black Friday are likely to have supported sales.
However, Household Goods remained in decline, with volumes down by 7.4% in November, and values up just 0.7% YoY.

Online

Online sales values declined by 5.1% YoY, compared to a weak 7.4% decline a year earlier.
All major online categories recorded a decline in the month. Including Household Goods (-6.5%) and Food (-5.5%). Non-store retailing (a proxy for pureplay retailers) saw sales decline by 4.8% YoY in November.
The proportion of retail sales made online was 30.2% in November – down from 32.8% a year earlier, but ahead of a pre-pandemic peak of 21.6% in November 2019.

Retail sales price deflator

The retail sales deflator (a measure of inflation specific to retail) stepped up by 9.8% YoY in November when excluding fuel, and by 10.5% when including fuel – marking a slight softening on October.
The implied price deflator among food stores remained lofty at 13.1% YoY in November, marking a fifth month of double-digit rises. Among non-food stores, the price deflator rose by 7.9% in the month.