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RICS Residential Market Survey January 2023

Buyer enquiries drop further 

  • The RICS UK Residential Survey for January results point to a further deterioration in market conditions, as buyer demand, new instructions and agreed sales continue to fall. 
  • Buyer enquiries remained negative for the ninth successive month. The net balance for new buyer enquiries fell to -47%, down from -40% in December. 
  • In terms of agreed sales, a net balance reading of -39% was posted in January, similar to December’s reading of -41%.

Inventory levels remain low

  • With respect to new instructions, the latest net balance of -14%, up from -23% in December, but still lower than a reading of -9% in November.
  • According to a net balance of -42% or respondents, the number of market appraisals undertaken over the month was lower than the equivalent period a year ago.

Buyer enquiries remain in negative territory for the ninth successive month

Source: RICS

Note: Net balance = Proportion of respondents reporting a rise minus those reporting a fall (e.g. if 30% reported a rise in prices and 5% reported a fall, the net balance will be 25%).

Price growth continues to slow

  • Prices are softening further as the national net balance for house prices fell to -47% in January, down from -42% in December.
  • The downward trend in prices can be seen across England with the sharpest declines in net balance terms coming across in the East Midlands and the South East.
  • House price readings across Scotland and Northern Ireland are still in marginally positive territory, but price growth has flattened significantly over the past six months.

Outlook

  • Near-term sales expectations were marginally less pessimistic than last month at -49% in January, up from -54% in November. 
  • Over the year ahead, a net balance of -20% of respondents foresee sales slipping, compared to a much weaker reading of -42% in December. 
  • Price expectations for the next three months were to -66%, in line with a net balance of -65% in December. 
  • Price expectations for the next twelve months have risen to a net balance of -40% after readings of -61% and -57% in November and December respectively, but this remains firmly in negative territory. 
  • Respondents across all parts of the UK envisage that prices will see some degree of decline over the next twelve months, except for Northern Ireland.

Rental market 

  • Tenant demand continues to rise according to a net balance of +43% of contributors, up from +28% in December. 
  • On the supply front, a net share of -14% of respondents noted a decline in new landlord instructions, up from last month’s reading of -24%, but nonetheless representing the tenth consecutive quarter in which a decline has been reported.
  • As a result, a net balance of +51% of respondents foresee rental prices increasing, similar to a reading of +52% last quarter.

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