UK Retail Inflation Report summary
November 2024
Period covered: Period covered: October 2024
3 minute read
Note: This report summary is one or two months behind the current month as standard reporting practice. The content is indicative only and incomplete with certain data undisclosed. Subscribe to access this data or take out a free 30 day subscription trial now.
Inflation
Headline Inflation Rises: CPI increased to xx% in October, up from xx% in September, exceeding expectations of a rise to xx%.
This marks the highest rate since April 2024 and reflects a reversal in base effects from household energy prices.
Core Inflation Ticks Up: Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) edged up to xx% in October from xx% in September, with goods inflation remaining deflationary, moving from -1.4% to -0.3% while services inflation edged up to xx%, from xx% in September.
Housing and Energy Costs Drive Inflation: Electricity prices rose by xx% and gas prices by xx% in October, reflecting Ofgem’s price cap increase. Although lower than their peaks, electricity and gas prices remain significantly elevated compared to March 2021 levels.
Transport Prices Fall Overall: Annual transport prices fell by xx% in October, although second-hand cars and airfares saw increases. Airfares, which typically fall back in October, rose xx% month-on-month, the largest October increase since records began, primarily due to higher European route fares.
Food Inflation Sticky: Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation remained sticky unchanged at xx% in October for the second consecutive month. Vegetables were the main driver of this increase and was the only category to provide upward pressure. Downward pressure came from fish, oils & fats and coffee, tea & cocoa.
Recreation and Culture Prices Eased: Annual inflation for recreation and culture dropped to xx% in October from xx% in September, with lower prices for cultural services, data processing equipment, and package holidays.
Producer Prices Decline: Input prices for producers fell by xx% in October YoY, following a xx% fall in September. Factory gate prices also fell, declining by xx%, compared to a xx% fall in the previous month
Financial Market Reaction: The pound rose following the inflation data, reflecting diminished expectations of near-term rate cuts. The probability of a December rate cut fell to xx% from xx% prior to the data release.
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The headline inflation measure rose by 2.3% in October
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Source: ONS
