Report Summary

Period covered: November 2024

3 minute read

Note: This report summary is one or two months behind the current month as standard reporting practice. The content is indicative only and incomplete with certain data undisclosed. Subscribe to access this data or take out a free 30 day subscription trial now.

Inflation

The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by xx% YoY in November, up from xx% last month. The annual core inflation rate (excl. food & energy prices) also rose, from xx% to xx%.

Headline inflation rises: Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rose to xx% in November, up from xx% in October, aligning with market expectations but exceeding recent Bank of England forecasts.

This marks an eight-month high, with motor fuel prices and transport costs driving the increase.

Core Inflation holds firm: Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, rose to xx% in November, up from xx% in October.

Goods and services inflation: Goods inflation rose from -xx% in October to -xx% in November, reflecting reduced deflationary pressures as input costs stabilised. Services inflation was unchanged at xx%, reflecting elevated wage growth, exceeding forecasts.

Transport Prices Fall Overall: Annual transport prices fell by xx% in November, from a xx% decline in the previous month. Upward pressure came from motor fuels and second-hand cars, which was partially offset by airfares. Airfares usually fall in November, but the drop in 2024 was the largest November fall on record.

Cultural services inflation rises: Prices in the recreation and culture category rose by xx% year-on-year, up from xx% in October. Key drivers included higher ticket prices for concerts and theatres as well as computer games, though short-term volatility persists in this sector.

Food Inflation edges up: Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation rose by xx% in November from xx% in October. Upward pressure came from oils & fats, milk, cheese & eggs and breads & cereals components.

Clothing and Footwear up again: Clothing and footwear inflation reached its highest level since July, driven by rising clothing prices. Monthly prices increased in November, compared with discount-driven declines a year earlier due to milder weather.

Producer Prices deflationary: Supply chain cost pressures remain muted, with both input and output prices in deflationary territory. Input prices fell xx%, while output prices declined xx% in November.

Financial Market Reaction: The pound and gilt yields saw modest increases following the inflation data. Markets have priced in a xx% probability that rates will remain at xx%, ruling out a December rate cut.

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The headline inflation measure rose by 2.6% in November